RICE (Oryza sativa L.) SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN MEXICO: IS IT POSSIBLE TO ACHIEVE IT?

Resumen

Given the significance of rice in the Mexican diet and the country’s dependence on imports to meet domestic demand, an examination of the food self-sufficiency index (SSI) for rice, which was 16.9 % in 2021, is required. The goal of this study was to examine the possibility of increasing the SSI to 66 % through crop area and yield increases, as well as to identify the most competitive regions in irrigated and rainfed agriculture under free trade conditions. A spatial equilibrium model that considered yield and potential area was obtained to analyze three scenarios that would place the SSI at 21, 46, and 66 %. The results show that to reach an SSI of 66 %, production would have to rise to 1139.7 thousand Mg, with 144.6 thousand ha of irrigated land and 18.2 thousand ha of rainfed areas, and an average yield of 7.4 and 4.2 Mg ha^-1, respectively. The rice-producing states with the highest growth potential would be Nayarit, Campeche, and Michoacán, which have the potential to increase the cultivated area by more than 75 000 ha. Other regions with potential include Veracruz, Colima, and Jalisco. Due to the vulnerability of the domestic market to exogenous international changes resulting from its dependence on imports, it is recommended that the necessary measures be implemented to increase SSI for rice.