USE OF CLIMEX TO EVALUATE THE ESTABLISHMENT POTENTIAL IN MEXICO OF TWO APPLE EXOTIC PEST SPECIES, Grapholita molesta AND Platynota idaeusalis

Abstract

Since the rising volumes of fruit imports from USA, Canada, and Chile, had increased the risk of introduction of plant pests to Mexico, the simulation program CLIMEX was used to estimate, through an Ecoclimatic Index, the probability of establishment of two quarantine pests: the oriental fruit moth [Grapholita molesta (Busck)] and the tufted apple bud moth [Platynota idaeusalis (Walker)], in the main production regions of apples (Malus pumila L.) and peaches (Prunus persica L.), in México. It was found that in those regions the climatic conditions such as temperature, relative humidity and photoperiod are favorable for establishment of G. molesta and P. idaeusalis. The risk of establishment of G. molesta was categorized as high for the apple production regions in Chihuahua, Coahuila and Durango, and peach in Aguascalientes. The ecoclimatic indexes for those regions were 21, 40, 25 and 21, respectively. The risk of establishment of P. idaeusalis is also high for the apple production regions of Durango and Coahuila, and medium for Chihuahua; in these cases the ecoclimatic indexes were 33, 40 and 23, respectively.