POTENTIAL GROWTH OF MEXICAN STRAWBERRY (Fragaria) EXPORTS.

Abstract

Mexico is one of the main strawberry (Fragaria) producers and exporters. After the implementation of the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada, Mexico’s export volume has grown and faces competitive pressures that could restrict its commercialization. The objective of this study was to model the Mexican strawberry-production sector and analyze the product’s exports behavior. We analyze a sevensimultaneous- equations model estimated for the 1980 to 2014 period via seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR). In this model, the exports volume was directly estimated by means of a supply equation for that volume or indirectly by the difference from the available supply (production equation plus imports) and the Mexican demand for strawberries. The export price and expectations from the exported amount the previous year directly and significantly explain the exports volume. The harvested area and price paid to the producers directly and significantly explain the production. The consumer’s price and the complementary good inversely explain the demand. The projections indicate that the exports volume will continue to grow, but in a decreasing manner; therefore, the export sector will continue to face competitive pressures in marketing Mexican strawberries within the US markets.