BOX - JENKINS METHODOLOGY TO FORECAST WHITE EGG PRICES PAID TO THE PRODUCER IN MEXICO.

Abstract

The chicken egg is one of the most highly demanded foods in Mexico, since it is an accessible source of protein, it is easy to prepare, versatile and widely available in the market. In 2016 the consumption per capita in Mexico was 23.1 kg; in addition, it accounted for the highest consumption in the world, compared to other protein sources. The aim of this study was to develop a method to forecast monthly nominal prices for white eggs paid to the producer in México (PPHBP). The data were from the period between 2000 and 2016 and we used the Box-Jenkins method for Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The parameters of the models were estimated using the maximum likelihood model with the Statistical Analysis System software. A model based on the PPHBP series was adapted for the period between 2000 and 2016, and it was validated with the data for January to December 2017. The best model estimated was SARIMA (0, 1, 1) X (1, 0, 1)s=12 and it indicated that the PPHBPs are explained by the prices recorded in the past two and twelve months. The values forecasted for 2017 were near to the values observed. The SARIMA model represented with accuracy the PPHBP in the following year, and it provided information to help planning and making decisions in the poultry sector.