RAINFALL VARIABILITY IN FIVE STATES OF MEXICO

Authors

  • Onofre Rafael García-Cueto
  • Gabriel Haro-Aguilar
  • Leonardo Tijerina-Chávez
  • Ramón Arteaga-Ramírez

Keywords:

Rainfall, probabilistic models, ENSO, meteorological predictions

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to analyze rainfall amount and frequency during periods of several days, to propose statistical models for periods of five days (pentadays) and to estimate the excess levels (at 75 % of probability). Also annual rainfall is related with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The study involved data from Baja California, Chihuahua, Veracruz, Guerrero, and Hidalgo. It was found that the incomplete-gamma distribution fitted the best to the pentadays data of precipitation in several pluviometric regimes. By using pentadays periods, rainfall variability was estimated with higher confidence as well as the identification of important humid spells for agricultural purposes. It is suggested that the ENSO events could predict the rainfall in the west part of Baja California; for the other locations, it was observed that an ENSO event is usually associated with normal or dry years.

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Published

30-03-1997

Issue

Vol. 31 No. 1 (1997): 1997-ene-mar

Section

Water-Soils-Climate

License

Agrociencia is published every 45 days, in an English format, and it is edited by the Colegio de Postgraduados. Mexico-Texcoco highway Km. 36.5, Montecillo, Texcoco, Estado de México, CP 56264, Telephone (52) 5959284427. www.colpos.mx. Editor-in-Chief: Dr. Fernando Carlos Gómez Merino. Rights Reserved for Exclusive Use: 04-2021-031913431800-203, e-ISSN: 2521-9766, granted by the National Institute for Author Right.